Modern Day Plagues

Excerpt from The Rational Christian
Pestilences (Matthew 24:7; Luke 21: 11)
Copyright © 2006 Christopher Creek Publishing. All Rights Reserved.

Infectious diseases have taken on a whole new dimension, particularly over the past couple of decades. We have witnessed the emergence of previously unknown diseases and seen death tolls that exceed those of the worst plagues in human history. Even more alarming is the resurgence of diseases that had been nearly eradicated earlier in the 20^th century. This phenomenon has startled scientists and healthcare professionals around the world.

Effective solutions have not been forthcoming. Despite our remarkable advances in medicine and technology, the seemingly inexplicable rise in the death toll from both known and unknown diseases inexorably marches on.

During the early days of man’s history, epidemic infectious diseases were relatively rare. There were fewer pathogens in the environment to cause infection, and a low population density limited the spread of disease. However, as civilization developed, the plagues appeared. The most notable epidemic diseases of earlier centuries were smallpox, Bubonic Plague, malaria, typhus, and tuberculosis. During the 14^th century, Bubonic Plague, known as the Black Death, killed millions. It is estimated that more than 25 percent of Europe’s entire population fell victim to this pestilence. In 1520, more than 1.5 million Aztecs succumbed to smallpox. From 1567 to 1596, an additional wave of Bubonic Plague and a massive influenza epidemic killed millions more. Although there were other epidemics in later centuries, few compared to the carnage seen during the Middle Ages. That is, until now.

In order to really appreciate how profound the phenomenon of pestilence is in our world today, it is important to consider three factors: resurgence of known diseases, emergence of new diseases, and current mortality statistics. On June 5, 1999, the Associated Press released a story entitled “Natural Disasters, Disease Reported on Rise Worldwide.” The story quoted a report by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent that “global warming, deforestation, poverty, and urban crowding are escalating the spread of deadly contagious diseases.” This is ironically an understatement when you review historical records and current epidemiological studies. An entire

book can be written on this subject alone, so I will try to extract the most significant points to illustrate the very disturbing trend.

Although previous centuries faced epidemics by a very definable group of pathogens as mentioned earlier, several of these ancient diseases have suddenly reemerged with a vengeance. Tuberculosis, which had been brought under control through antibiotic therapy in the 1950s, is now viewed as a major reemerging disease and the leading cause of death in adults worldwide, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). In 1985, a longstanding downward trend in the spread of TB suddenly reversed and then accelerated into pandemic proportions. Strains of the causative organism, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics, raising grave concerns about its spread. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that an estimated 2-3 million people around the globe die each year from tuberculosis. Another 8 million contract the disease each year and are at risk for infection. Current trends indicate that nearly one billion people will be infected with TB before 2020 if more effective prevention measures are not employed.

Cholera is another reemerging disease causing great concern in health organizations worldwide. It is interesting to note that although cholera is considered to be an ancient disease, it is not portrayed as one of the more significant epidemic diseases of ages past. It only began its rise to prominence during the early 19^th century. The first cholera pandemic of 1817 – 1823 killed hundreds of thousands in India, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. Since that time, there have been numerous epidemics and the incidence of the disease has continued to rise throughout the world. Cholera initially spread to Africa and then to the Americas in 1991, attesting to how recent its upsurge has been. It is estimated that more than 200,000 cases of cholera are now reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) each year.

Malaria is yet another reemerging disease that affects 300 – 500 million people annually, causing nearly 3 million deaths. It is a mosquito-borne disease commonly found in tropical and subtropical regions. Like tuberculosis, most strains of the disease, including the most severe form, have become resistant to the drugs used to treat them. Even more startling is the fact that malaria was almost completely eradicated 30 years ago, but is now on the rise again.

Tuberculosis, cholera, and malaria are not the only reemerging diseases rapidly proliferating today. Dengue fever infects nearly 50 million people each year. In just the last few years alone, there have been many outbreaks in Asia and Africa. Measles, a disease that has been drastically reduced in countries where a vaccine is available, has undergone enormous growth in developing nations causing nearly 800,000 deaths in 2001. Yellow fever is now responsible for an estimated 30,000 deaths a year, and typhoid fever causes nearly 600,000 deaths annually.

	As staggering as the sudden reappearance and death toll may be for the reemerging diseases, they represent only the tip of the iceberg. The emerging or new diseases paint a picture that is even more alarming. It profoundly echoes the words spoken by Jesus in Matthew Chapter 24. The single most startling illustration of this point is that since only 1973 more than
30 previously unknown diseases have emerged including AIDS (HIV), Ebola hemorrhagic fever (Ebola virus), Hepatitis C, Nipah virus, and SARS, all of which have no known cure. Other fearsome new diseases that have arisen in just the past few decades include Legionnaires disease, Lyme disease, Hanta pulmonary syndrome (Hanta virus), Lassa fever, West Nile virus, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (related to mad cow disease). Only two of the preceding diseases were discovered before 1973, Lassa fever in 1969 and West Nile virus in 1937. In any event, none of them existed prior to the past century, and many of them have appeared over the past decade alone.

When you consider the peculiar features of just a few of the emerging diseases, the symbolism of their sudden appearance becomes even more unnerving. They are certainly like nothing we have ever seen before. Ebola hemorrhagic fever, recognized in 1976, causes high fever, vomiting, diarrhea, muscle pain, rash, and internal and external bleeding. Blood leaks out of every orifice and into the intestines, lungs, stomach, eyes, and beneath the skin. Some say that victims look as though their faces had exploded. The disease is usually fatal and has no known cure. Lassa fever, discovered in 1969 and named after the Nigerian town in which it originated, is similar to Ebola virus. In addition to exhibiting most of the gruesome symptoms caused by Ebola, Lassa fever also causes conjunctivitis, profuse bleeding from the mucous membranes, facial swelling, and neurological problems including hearing loss and tremors. The fatality rate can be as high as 50 percent. It is estimated that the virus infects 100,000 to 300,000 each year in West Africa. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is an infectious and fatal degenerative brain disease caused by a prion, which is a protein. It is speculated by some that eating red meat and various meat products may cause the disease, but the amount required for infection is unknown. It results in failing memory, dementia, impaired vision, involuntary muscle movements, and eventually coma and death. There is no cure, and patients usually die within a year. The exact mode of transmission for the disease is still uncertain, although it is known that prions cannot be destroyed by sterilization like bacteria or viruses. They are a truly frightening new disease agent. It is anticipated that prion diseases may impact hundreds of thousands over the next decade. Nipah virus, discovered only a few years ago in 1999, is yet another pathological oddity. It causes high fever, muscle pains, brain inflammation (encephalitis) and eventually coma. It is fatal in 50 percent of all cases. Then of course there is SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), the very latest plague with the potential to spread and kill millions.

There are many other bizarre diseases and disease organisms that have reemerged over the past few decades. Necrotizing fasciitis (infection caused by flesh-eating bacteria) causes gangrene, spreads rapidly, and can be fatal. Although believed to be an ancient disease described by Hippocrates centuries ago, it has reemerged and is causing concern in the medical community. On August 9, 2002, United Press International released a story about a Massachusetts retiree who had contracted the disease while fishing. It all began when a fishing hook pierced his hand. After two weeks he experienced soreness, and hours later his hand became swollen and turned black. The infection was caused by photobacterium damsela, a very aggressive marine form of flesh-eating bacteria. Doctors did everything possible to save the man, including amputation of his arm and later part of his back and side. He died within 38 hours.

Peculiar fungus infestations are also causing major concern. Stachybotrys chartarum is a fungus that has been increasingly infecting homes around the country. It grows on materials with high cellulose content such as ceiling tile, drywall, and wallpaper after they have been exposed to excess moisture. Stachybotrys produces mycotoxins that can suppress the immune system affecting lymphoid tissue and bone marrow. It can also cause permanent neurological damage and various forms of cancer. Many homes have been bulldozed over the past few years, particularly in southern California, because they had been rendered unlivable by the fungus. The insurance industry has recently begun to add riders to homeowners’ policies divesting themselves of the obligation to pay claims due to biological damage. Many would have expected these administrative changes to be due to impending bio-terrorism attacks. But the sudden shift in policy has actually been instigated by such unusual phenomena as stachybotrys infestations.

Diseases of water and food are also coming to the forefront. On August 16, 2002, the Associated Press reported that, according to the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, 76 million people – mostly children – could die from water-related diseases by 2020 if changes are not made worldwide in the way drinking water is provided. Food-borne illnesses have already risen sharply in Europe and Asia impacting millions of people, and have become a significant concern during the past few years according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Mysterious emerging diseases are affecting animals as well. On January 16, 2001, ABC News reported a mysterious degenerative affliction, similar to mad cow disease, killing deer and elk throughout the United States. There were also reports of “mad sheep” in Vermont. With the increased incidence of prion-related diseases in animal populations, concerns have been raised that America’s blood supply may be infected. In another story on August 6, 2001, ABC News reported a new disease called avian vacuolar myelinopathy that has been attacking eagles, coots, ducks, geese, and horned owls, causing lesions in their white brain matter. The affected birds become awkward, disoriented, and even clumsy, often crashing into buildings and automobile windshields. The cause is unknown. In yet another recent story it was reported that cancer in dogs and cats has risen sharply, reducing their life expectancy. Apparently, even animals are not safe from the pestilence that has emerged during the past few decades.

Many diseases viewed as traditional American health problems are also steadily on the rise. Cardiovascular disease has continually increased over the years and is still the number one killer in America. About 700,000 die each year from some form of heart disease. What most of us forget is that cardiovascular disease was virtually unheard of prior to 1900. Cancer is second to heart disease with about 560,000 deaths per year. On March 10, 1999, CNN reported that there was a 70 percent increase in liver cancer in the United States between the mid-seventies and mid-nineties. On April 4, 2001, the Journal of the National Cancer Institute reported that the incidence of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma rose 81 percent between 1973 and 1997. On February 27, 2001, BBC News reported that all forms of cancer in the U.K. had risen 20 percent for men and 30 percent for women. Cancer is the leading cause of death in the U.K. On April 4, 2003, Reuters announced that according to the WHO World Cancer Report, global rates of cancer could rise 50 percent to 15 million new cases a year by 2020. In a separate report, it announced that cases of diabetes worldwide are expected to more than double by 2025, from about 135 million to 300 million.

The substantial death toll from plagues in the Middle Ages pales in comparison to the mortality statistics of just the last few decades alone. According to a 1996 report in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), a study of death certificates in the United States revealed a 58 percent increase from 1980 to 1992 in the death rate where infectious diseases were the underlying cause. According to a January 2000 National Intelligence Council Report, “approximately half of all deaths caused by infectious diseases each year can be attributed to just three diseases: tuberculosis, malaria, and AIDS. Together, these diseases cause over 300 million illnesses and more than 5 million deaths each year.”

	The AIDS pandemic is believed to have started in the mid to late 1970s. By 1980, HIV had spread to at least five continents, and without the awareness and prevention we have today, it is estimated that as many as 100,000 to 300,000 people had already been infected. The death toll from AIDS currently stands at well over 22 million. It is believed that more than 40 million worldwide are infected with HIV. When the world’s largest conference on the AIDS epidemic opened in July 2002, Peter Piot, head of the United Nations AIDS agency, made a grim announcement: “AIDS will kill 70 million more people by 2020 unless wealthy nations step up their efforts to combat the disease.” This could ultimately make the total death toll for AIDS alone higher than all the wars of the 20^th century combined. In an even more startling
announcement by the CDC and World Health Organization (WHO), it was reported that the United States death toll from the hepatitis C virus, a significant cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, might even surpass that of HIV/AIDS within the next five years. Some 4 million Americans are believed to be chronic carriers of this virus. On its present course, the combined death toll from AIDS, tuberculosis, SARS and other diseases will exceed the entire population of the 14^th century world many times over, making the most severe pandemics of that era woefully insignificant by comparison.

Finally, there is the grave specter of a SARS pandemic. This new virulent disease with an unknown etiology originated in southern China in November of 2002. By April 30, 2003, more than 5,600 people in 26 different countries were already infected with the disease, and at least 372 had died. The disease causes a flu-like illness with severe respiratory distress. New outbreaks are occurring with as many as 200 new cases every day in China, Singapore, and Canada, while also affecting other countries including India, Taiwan, Brazil, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Republic of Ireland, Romania, Switzerland, Thailand, United Kingdom, and the United States. In some areas the number of new cases is doubling every 2-3 weeks with a mortality rate as high as 10 percent. The greatest fear is that this new disease could spread like the 1918-1919 flu epidemic which rapidly infected 400 million people, killing over 30 million. In an April 29, 2003 interview with CNN Europe, Dr. Patrick Dixon said, “If we don't take great care, SARS could become established in the poorest nations – places like Burundi, Nigeria or Malawi – which have neither the high-tech capability of Toronto nor the totalitarian muscle of China to contain it. If that happens, the consequences for global control could be grave.” Regardless of whether SARS develops into a global crisis or not, it is just a matter of time before any of the other emerging diseases, or perhaps a new disease we have not yet seen, creates a pandemic of unprecedented proportions.